Governor / Lt. Governor Polls

Here are the most recent poll numbers:
Governor
Henry 60%
Istook 34%
Undecided 5%

Lt. Governor
Askins 48%
Hiett 42%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

The internals were also interesting. Istook did well with conseratives, winning 62-31, but horrible with moderates losing 82-15. One odd number among Hispanics Istook is the clear choice 52-32, but it is such a small sample size it really doesn't say much. Clearly so far it shows that Istook did not know what he was talking about when he said that Henry's support was wide but not deep, Henry has kept his large lead in several key groups like rural Oklahomans. Henry continues to have across the board support in most of the internal numbers which is a good sign for a sitting governor to still have wide spread appeal even after making decisions that people don't like.

In the Lt. Governor's race the theme stays the same: a very tight race. With Askins lead just outside the margin of error she has to do well in key areas. She has a big advantage with women voters 56-36, young voters 47-30 and lower income ( less than 40k) 57-33 voters. She needs to do extremely well to win this race with those groups. However, like any close election the winner will need to do well with Independents, they are split pretty evenly. Yet there may be a flaw with this poll since it does not give the Independents candidate as a choice by saying "or Independent E.Z. Million" it may drive votes for him because he is just 'other' as 12% of Independents responded with other.

The poll was taken 8/25/06 - 8/27/06 by Survey USA. The margin of error was ± 4.3% in the Governor's race poll and ± 4.4% in the Lt. Governor's race.

Vote for the state quarter!

Vote for the Oklahoma Quarter design!

State Legislature Results

The two Democratic runoffs were close.
Senate 16- Sparks beat Emrich 51% to 49%, dispite Sparks negative campaigning. Just shows that a negative campaign can work sometimes.
(DEM) FOR STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT NO. 16 36 OF 36
TIM EMRICH -3,096 -49.39%
JOHN SPARKS -3,172 -50.61%

Senate 26- Ivester beat Walters in a real close race.
(DEM) FOR STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT NO. 26 76 OF 76
TOM IVESTER -3,895 -51.76%
WAYNE WALTERS -3,630 -48.24%

HD-69 Medlock, former Tulsa City Councilor, and failed mayoral candidate, lost yet another campaign. Why? Maybe it is because Medlock is not a man of conviction and panders to what ever is popular. Or, perhaps it is that Jordan is a quality person, unlike what some Medlock supporters said. So now Medlock will have to find a real job, it's about time!
Jordan -1,997 -62%
Medlock -1,216 -38%

Lt. Governor Runoff Results

It's Hiett -vs- Askins. The race came down to who could turnout their voters. The turnout was low as expected across the state. However the Democrats turned out about 46,079 more voters than the GOP; even though the Republicans had a contested 5th District race and the Democrats did not. Negative ads usually hurt turnout, but the turnout seems average for a runoff. I think that Democrats are excited about the race than Republicans, mainly because they feel confident about the Governors race and want to retain control of the Senate.
I will find it interesting to see if it is easier for Democrats to raise money since Jari raised only 200,000 in individual contributions while Hiett raised over a million. Since contributors can not give more than $5,000 , I think it gives Jari Askins an advantage.

CD-5 GOP Runoff results

As predicted by the Survey USA poll taken 08/18/2006 - 08/20/2006 Fallin won by large margins that the had poll predicted. The poll said she would win 61% to 36% with 4% undecided. Fallin ended up winning 63% to 37%. The AP called her victory just before 8pm. Cornett just got votes on name ID alone, that is all he has had, that is why you do not start races late ... because you almost always lose!

Pete Regan has momentum in Cleveland County, race.

Election Analysis
In what may be the most important county in the Democratic runoff for Lt. Governor, Cleveland County, Pete Regan is gaining momentum. Why would Cleveland county be the most important county? Answer: First the candidates running last time but not now, Cal Hobson whose district is in Cleveland County. Also Cleveland county has one of only two Democratic State Senate districts runoff elections, local races get people to vote in an otherwise low profile runoff election, parts of McClain county is also in District 26. Turnout will also be higher in Cleveland county because of a vote on a half cent sales tax Tuesday in Norman. With votes totals down across the state Cleveland County will be key for victory.

Here is why Regan is gaining ground: Hobson, whose district is the runoff, endorsed Regan. Regan also gained the endorsement of the Norman Transcript. However a simple look at demographics explains why. Cleveland county is young, thus more likely to vote for Regan.

Now a look at a few of the other local races. State Senate District 16 in western Oklahoma that was held by Gilmer Capps. This should go to Askins, because of it's location near Askins base. However Sen. Gilmer Capps was popular and he endorsed Pete Regan, the results will tell how effective his endorsement was. In the house District 15 in Eastern Oklahoma should lean towards Regan, because of it's location near Regan's base. HD-74 is in a heavily Republican area and should play little role. HD-99 is a urban district in NE OKC and will depend on the hard work of the campaigns on the ground in that district.

In the DA's races District 27 is where Regan did fairly well, Regan will benefit. In district 17 he won that district with 3,586 votes to Askins 2,146. These DA races could play a role in the outcome.

Of note. In Tulsa County there are no local races in heavy democratic areas, Regan won Tulsa County, if Regan does not win Tulsa County he will not win. Comanche was Askins second best County percentage wise,second only to her home county Stephens, this time there are no local races in Comanche county.

Fallin: I will stand tough aginst against the war on terrorism!

Here is a clip of KOCO Debate thanks to Oklahoma Political News Service. I find it funny.

"I approve this message because I belive in Faith, Family, and Al-Fateh!"

Lt. Governor Ads

Jari Askins Response Ad

This is her best ad yet. She doesn't show the same picture of the people over and over again, which gets old. Plus by her doing the ad personally it sounds sincere. Waaah!

Scott Pruitt Legislature Endorsement Ad

This ad highlights the endorsements of fellow Senators; but will it work when people can't name their own state senator?

Todd Hiett Ad with Bridget talking

In this ad Bidget Hiett talks about Todd. It has a positive family feeling, as the goal is to get the voter comfortable with Todd Hiett. The ad is the first positive ad to not have the tagline, "Footsteps to the future, Todd Hiett for Lt. Governor".

House District-69 Medlock: Not so conservative?

Many people think that House district 69 candidate Chris Medlock is a true conservative. Yet that may not be the truth. Medlock worked as youth director at All Souls Church Unitarian Church in Tulsa. During his time he voiced opinion on several issues. One of those issues was abortion. He voiced his opinion on abortion that was similar to the views of liberal members. All Souls is known as one of the most liberal churches in Tulsa. He said something along the lines that he felt that a fetus meant little. Now Medlock calls himself a conservative. My, how people can change in a short period, or has he changed at all? Medlock while on the city council was resistant to the demands of business, typically something seen done more by liberal Democrats. It will be interesting to see in the legislature how Medlock will vote, if he gets elected. Medlock has backing from KFAQ's Michael DelGiorno, who is in a heap of trouble, with problems at Creek Nation Casino at 81st Street and Riverside Drive in Tulsa. It will be interesting to see Medlock faces Fred Jordan on Tuesday, he has received the endorsement of OKRA, that sounds tasty; and the Tulsa Beacon home of the cartoon Just Joe King (that is so lame). Jordan has out raised Medlock $92,274.31 to $15,348.50; but Medlock is well known and has been able to use grassroots campaigns effectively. It will be interesting to see how this campaign ends up.

Jari Askins Responds

Jari Askins seems to be hurt by Pete Regan's attack on her voting record. In Jari Askins response ad she tells about how upset she his about Regan not telling the truth. She goes on to say that she fought alongside Henry for healthcare, education, and jobs. Yet she does not sight specific votes. She goes on to say that while she was working hard, Pete Regan was just a lobbyist! Pete Regan worked as a lobbyist for special interests like the YMCA and District Attorneys Council. Jari still has yet to refute any of the claims made in Regans attack ads by siting factual evidence, that means it must be true she increased tuition, voted against taxing strip clubs, voted aginst Brad Henry's education plan and raised the Lt. Governor salary. So Peter Regan must be telling the truth!

Lt. Governor Poll & Money!

Who will you vote for Lt. Governor? E.Z. Million Pete Regan Todd Hiett Jari Askins Scott Pruitt    Free polls from Pollhost.com

The money only gets more interesting. On the Democratic side Jari Askins continues to receive a lot of money from a person named Jari Askins. Of $781,569 in total contributions $530,000 has come from Jari Askins, only $221,734 has come from individuals. In fact Jari only raised 59,960 in this period from individuals while her opponent raised 142,143 this period. This says two things Pete is gaining momentum and he has broad based support. In fact if you look at the overall scheme of things and only consider contributions from individuals Pete Regan has out raised Jari Askins $507,306 to $221,734. The ads Pete is running go right at the heart of things, like does anyone outside of Duncan really support her? I think this race will be close to the finish.

Cornett is Fallin in the CD-5 runoff!

The chart on the left shows the results of the latest Survey USA poll on the Republican 5th district primary. Fallin has 58%, Cornett is at 39%, and 3% are undecided. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 %. As earlier money problems have shown Cornett just entered the race too late. He has not been able to fly through the runoff the way he was able to in the primary on name ID alone. Now when organization shows through in a two way race, Cornett has been caught with out a paddle up the CD5 creek and it looks like he will be Fallin off a waterfall soon. Fallin wins, and wins big!

Regan attacks Askins record.

In a new ad just released attacks Jari Askins for raising college tuition, not taxing strip clubs, and not rasing the minimum wage. What really comes down to is what has Jari Askins done? This ad will have a big impact but, I am not sure for which canididate yet. Currently I think this helps Regan because it is not a personal attack but a record attack. This is why many democrats think Askins is a bad choice because of her voting record.

Lt. Governor Runoff Showdown!

My Picks:
Republicans: Todd Hiett, he is supported by real people. Pruitt just seems to be some rich kid who does not care about public schools. How can Pruitt really serve Oklahoma when in the past he has not served Broken Arrow well. He missed several votes because he was working for the Redhawks from April to Sept. even when the Senate meets from Jan. - May. Hiett may have been caught driving without a license at age 14 but, there is nothing wrong with that when you are on the farm, Pruitt wouldn't understand.

Independents: E.Z. Million (Only Independent running) "Let's get Fired Up.......There is much to be done: 1. Play the OU-Texas Game in Norman in October 7,2006, and then 2. Establish the "Heartland (of America) Bowl in December 2007" The Heartland Bowl is a good idea, but what about sponsors? How about the American Standard Toilet Bowl presented by Quilted Northern. Here is a Daily Texan story from 2002.

Democrats: Pete Regan, has the energy that this state needs. His fresh ideas are something that Askins lacks. A campaign should be about ideas and goals not just accomplishments and endorsements from mom! What is something big that Jari has done in her years in the legislature? While Askins may have the Jariatrics, Regan will gain bipartisan support for his innovative leadership style.

Pruitt promotes beer drinking!

While Scott Pruitt says one thing in his ad he does another thing with his business the Oklahoma Redhawks. Every Thursday Pruitt pushes alcohol at reduced prices he hides it under the title 'Thirsty Thursday'. The self titled man of conviction who wants to protect our Christian values wants people to consume mass quantities of alcohol. The Hiett campaign has seems to be unaware of this. Will Oklahoma voters let this slide? Does Scott Pruitt have a hidden agenda? Only time will tell. I encourage everyone to dress like Scott Pruitt on the August 17th game of the Redhawks and demand to be let in free!

Pete Regan gains endorsements

Pete Regan will announce today at 10 am press conference that he will receive many endorsements of Senate Democrats. This is big news as democrats are starting to rally behind Regan. Oklahoma political news service reported that Pro Tem Mike Morgan and former Pro Tem Cal Hobson will endorse Regan. This means that elected democrats are confident enough to make an endorsement in the primary because they fill so strongly about a candidate. Democratic Sens. Johnnie Crutchfield, Ardmore; Ted Fisher, Sapulpa; Charles Wyrick, Fairland; J. Berry Harrison, Fairfax, and former Senate President Pro Tem Stratton Taylor, Claremore also endorse Regan. Regan already has the endorsement of Barry Switzer and Governor George Nigh.

Here is the first Pete Regan ad:


Pete Regan has also received the endorsement of The Oklahoma Fraternal Order of Police. They think Regan is better than Hiett, Askins and, Pruitt.

Lt. Governor race heats up.

This race is getting hot! I found out something new today by watching TV: Jari Askins won 83% of the! Now why is their a runoff? Hmm.. you watch the new Jari Askins ad and decide for yourself.
Todd Hiett goes to the fishing hole in his latest ad. His ad continues the argroamerican feel to it. So far Pruitt has not answered, he is too busy making another blockbuster ad in Hollywood! Note: Picture with church sign is not real, just for laughs!

Funny videos I found

Enjoy!

View political ads from around the country!

The Washington Post has set up a website where you can watch ads form different races around the United States. Right now 70 ads are on the database. By watching the ads you can get a better feel for the race. Some are funny too! Here is a link to the Washington Post political ad database.

Delay to stay on ballot says 5th Circuit Court

I know this does not directly relate to Oklahoma but it will have implications.
_______________________________________________
Court Rules DeLay's Name Stays on Ballot

By KELLEY SHANNON
The Associated Press
Thursday, August 3, 2006; 4:01 PM

AUSTIN, Texas -- A federal appeals court panel on Thursday refused to let Texas Republicans replace Tom DeLay's name on the November congressional ballot.

The finding upheld a July ruling by a federal judge that the ballot must list DeLay, who won a March primary before resigning from Congress on June 9. He now lives in Virginia but is awaiting trial in Texas state court on money laundering and conspiracy charges alleging that illegal corporate cash helped pay for legislative campaigns in 2002.

Republicans want to pick another nominee to face Democrat Nick Lampson in November. Democrats sued to keep DeLay on the ballot. Keeping him on the ballot gives them an easier race and bolsters their attempts to make the indicted former House majority leader their symbol for claims of Republican corruption.

Thursday's ruling said that GOP state chairwoman Tina Benkiser acted unconstitutionally when she tried to remove DeLay as the party nominee because he had moved.

Democrats had noted that DeLay's wife, Christine, still lives in the DeLays' house in Sugar Land, just outside Houston.

While the U.S. Constitution requires a candidate to live in-state, the question is where he is residing on Election Day, not now, the three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said.

"Proof of DeLay's present residency may suggest where he will be in the future; however, it does not put the matter beyond dispute or question," the opinion said.

Lawyers for Republican and Democratic party leaders said they were still studying the opinion and had no other immediate comment Thursday.

If the Republican Party chairman decides to appeal, the matter could be directed to the full appeals court or the U.S. Supreme Court.
________________________________________________
I wonder if Oklahoma Democrats will be able to use this against Republicans like Istook in the fall. With Delay's name on the ballot it brings things out front and center. That why I love Istook's congressional campaign slogan so much... 'Integrity in Congress!' ... that's just funny! Istook recived $6000 from Abramoff.

Sen. Nancy Riley reregisters as Democrat

The Lt. Governor candidate that received 23% of the vote in the primary. This signals either a big shift like that in Kansas where the moderates are leaving the GOP; or it is just a personal action taken by Sen. Riley. By switching parties this helps the democrats in their attempts to keep control of the Senate. I personally hope this is the first step of moderate Republicans to leave the party that has been taken over by radicals; for example when was the last time a moderate got elected for a statewide office by the republicans? A short clip of the news conference is below.

Lottery in the 2006 election.

Today's announcement by the Oklahoma Lottery Commission is good news for Brad Henry. The fact that the lottery met its goal for money to education was even better. Wasn't the lottery the number one issue of Istook? Due to the lottery, it created 1.8 million dollars in additional revenue for the state just with this winner alone. In fact the trust said good things about Henry himself. Face it Henry has been a boon for Oklahoma's education, the most important tool in economic development.

The beneficiaries also stated that they would like to express their sincere appreciation to Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry for his foresight and great efforts in bringing the lottery to Oklahoma - not just because they won, but also because they have recognized that the lottery has generated so much in necessary funding for the support of education in the State of Oklahoma.

-WJW Investment Trust

Brad Henry's Vegas Vacation

The Oklahoma Gazette published a story about Brad Henry and a paid vacation to Las Vegas. I think it is nothing compared to Hiett's pay to play scandal. However the picture from the Oklahoma Gazette is pretty funny.
Other notes: Brad Henry has said he wants to debate. Henry wants a forum setup that will be televised. Istook would also like to debate, but in a more traditional setting. That is the difference between them, Henry has a folksy style and Istook has broadcaster style.

5th District Runoff

Right now it seems that everything is going Fallin's way. I think it is very likely that she will win, and big. Now that people can really focus on just two candidates, Cornett's campaign flaws are showing. While Cornett could coast through the 6 way primary just on name ID; the runoff is all about organization. People have only a few reasons to show up. The voters won't show up for the Lt. Gov race and then vote on name ID alone. More likely they will show up for the 5th district race and vote on ID in the Lt. Gov race. Fallin has a strong organization, Cornett does not; the reason is that Cornett entered the race too late to win. His mayoral campaign might be seen as beneficial but it did have to reduce his fundraising potential. Fallin will win, and win big.