Friday, August 18, 2006

Pete Regan has momentum in Cleveland County, race.

Election Analysis
In what may be the most important county in the Democratic runoff for Lt. Governor, Cleveland County, Pete Regan is gaining momentum. Why would Cleveland county be the most important county? Answer: First the candidates running last time but not now, Cal Hobson whose district is in Cleveland County. Also Cleveland county has one of only two Democratic State Senate districts runoff elections, local races get people to vote in an otherwise low profile runoff election, parts of McClain county is also in District 26. Turnout will also be higher in Cleveland county because of a vote on a half cent sales tax Tuesday in Norman. With votes totals down across the state Cleveland County will be key for victory.

Here is why Regan is gaining ground: Hobson, whose district is the runoff, endorsed Regan. Regan also gained the endorsement of the Norman Transcript. However a simple look at demographics explains why. Cleveland county is young, thus more likely to vote for Regan.

Now a look at a few of the other local races. State Senate District 16 in western Oklahoma that was held by Gilmer Capps. This should go to Askins, because of it's location near Askins base. However Sen. Gilmer Capps was popular and he endorsed Pete Regan, the results will tell how effective his endorsement was. In the house District 15 in Eastern Oklahoma should lean towards Regan, because of it's location near Regan's base. HD-74 is in a heavily Republican area and should play little role. HD-99 is a urban district in NE OKC and will depend on the hard work of the campaigns on the ground in that district.

In the DA's races District 27 is where Regan did fairly well, Regan will benefit. In district 17 he won that district with 3,586 votes to Askins 2,146. These DA races could play a role in the outcome.

Of note. In Tulsa County there are no local races in heavy democratic areas, Regan won Tulsa County, if Regan does not win Tulsa County he will not win. Comanche was Askins second best County percentage wise,second only to her home county Stephens, this time there are no local races in Comanche county.

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