Post Primary Wrap Up Gov & Lt. Gov

I am behind because I was in DC this week.

No real surprises were made in the Governors race. The number one problem was that Sullivan used his money to attack a well known opponent without establishing what he stood for. He had some good overview ads he just ran them to late.

Lt. Governor I totally underestimated the power of negative ads in the GOP contest. Riley ran one of the most effective campaigns ever. Less than a dollar per vote. Clearly she was in the news enough that she was a viable alternative. Now the race will only heat up and might continue to go negative because the only other option is the guy you are attacking. Pruitt was very strong in Tulsa County while Oklahoma County had the same results as statewide. This time though, Riley of Tulsa County won't be running, so if Pruitt can milk Tulsa voters he has a chance.
On the Democratic side, was it Jim Rogers, or Roy Rogers, or maybe Will Rogers? Rogers won LeFlore, Texas and Sequoyah County. Maybe Accountability Burns should change his name to Will Rogers and run for statewide office, I see a winner! I think this was a clear example of the importance of money. Askins of Stephens Co. Abstract Company, has deep pockets and Pete Regan has rich friends. The runoff won't be easy for Askins even though she got about 30,000 more votes than Pete. The runoff doesn't attract people for state wide contests other than Gov., local contests drive turnout. Look to counties in Southeastern Oklahoma to determine the race, some of which Rogers won. Also Hobson's Senate seat will have a runoff, last election most votes went to Cal, now they are up for grabs.

Tim Harris campaign goes dirty

It appears that the Tim Harris dirty tricks team is out and about. This is attempt to cover up lies that have been proven like in my earlier entry about the race I sight two different numbers for conviction rates both from the Harris campaign. That is what I call LIES.

Tim Harris prides himself on being a Christian. Yet he personally attacks his challenger, that was a low blow. Now it seems Harris supporters are trespassing on to peoples property and vandalizing the opponent's signs. I wish this campaign could be waged on facts and issues, but Tim Harris tries to divert attention to Swab being a defense Attorney. Those kind of attacks are something I personally don't find as professional, but rather political cheap shots. Truth is, Tim Harris is just as much a politician as his opponent.

On the Tim Harris website it says you do the math. One of his stats troubled me, his stat on how he files 9 out of 10 cases, there is no source attributed to that. In court that evidence would be thrown out. So I did the math...

Swab
24 former Assistant DA's
10 out of 10 Tulsa County FOP Groups
1 former Tulsa County District Attorney for 14 years- Buddy Fallis
1 personal death penalty conviction per year

Harris
0 former Assistant DA's has publicly endorsed Harris
0 Tulsa County Law Enforcement Endorsement
0 Former Tulsa County DA's Endorsements
2 Liberals, Kurt Glassco, who ran against Republicans on an anti-life platform; Paul Tay, the crazy guy who rides on his bike.
1.625 office wide death penalty convictions per year

I did the math and so did other members of the law enforcement community. The law enforcement community is backing Swab because the truth never lies.

My predictions

Gov.
Istook 58%
Sullivan 21%
Williamson 17%
Evanoff 4%

Henry 91%
Marr 9%

Lt. Gov.
Hiett 50.1%
Pruitt 41.4%
Riley 8.5%

Askins 36%
Regan 32%
Hobson 31%
Rogers 1%

State Treasurer*
Barnett 54%
Keating 46%

Commissioner of Labor (Huh, there is an election? - Joe Voter)@
Shurden 52%
Fields 48%

Insurance Commissioner (Huh, there is an election? - Joe Voter)@
Case 60%
Willard 40%

CD-5
Fallin 30%
Cornett 28%
Bode 25%
Calvey 9%
Morgan 7%
Roy 1%

Hunter 54%
Smith 46%

Tulsa DA#

Swab 51%
Harris 49%

*Dependent on turnout of tax protesters, high turnout will swing election to Keating
#Based on an above average turnout. The higher the turnout the more likely Swab will win.
@Not really based on much, really a crapshoot. These races are virtual tossups.

The Truth in Tulsa's DA's Race

While the proponents of Tim Harris are saying the Brett Swab campaign is leading a campaign of misinformation, that is far from the truth. I find it amazing that someone who claims that they make their decisions through God would fault someone for their profession. I remember being taught how Jesus did not take fault on the tax collector; in my humble opinion I believe that he would not take fault in that of a defense attorneys. In fact everyone deserves a lawyer, that is true justice. PERSONAL ASSASSINATION IS NOT VERY CHRISTIAN LIKE. Harris has being attacking Brett Swab individually not just factually; while Swab has only used facts. The facts from the Brett Swab campaign are consistent, not so with the Tim Harris campaign. In fact in my earlier entry about the race I sight two different numbers for conviction rates both from the Harris campaign. That is what I call misinformation.

"I will not be intimidated by law enforcement."

- Tim Harris

That is something I don't want to hear from the chief law enforcement officer in Tulsa County. Maybe that's why every law enforcement officer that has endorced someone, has endorsed Brett Swab not Tim Harris. Swab: all Tulsa County FOP's, Former DA Buddy Fallis, and the Tulsa Firefighters. Now according to the Urban Tulsa Weekly, Swab campaign is made up of only old money; since when were police officers and firefighters old money? That is what I call misinformation.

Now I must let you know my bias now, I am close friends with several prosecutors both state and federal. They tell me that the problem is way the office is run. Many who are outside the legal community are unaware that the DA has fired experienced prosecutors, many times for no reason. Now Tim Harris has replaced them with inexperienced new people. That is why the sententes for the crimnals is much lower than it should be. In Harris latest ad he says he has had 13 death penalty convictions. Looks big but when you divide them by the 8 years he has been DA, it comes to 1.625 death penalty convictions a year, far fewer than the number of homicides this year so far which is at last check 41 homicides.
50 homicides in 2004, 69 homicides in 2003 and only 1.625 death penalty convictions a year; Tim Harris as DA just doesn't add up.

Lt. Governor New Ads

Jari Askins is going negative. In her ad she as an actor tell how she is better than her opponents. The actor says that Pete Regan was a lobbyist; I find it funny that one of Jari finds the YMCA of OKC to be bad. Don't take things personally Jari! However I like when the actor says, "Cal Hobson had to be removed by his own democratic senators because he had a problem that kept him from doing his job". This leaves the public under the impression that it is something worse than alcoholism.

Cal Hobson has TV. His ad focuses on after school programs, an important issue but nothing compared to the issue of the minimum wage. See his ad at Cal's website .



The Hiett Pay to Play ad is wonderful. Pruitt has learned not to appear in his attack ads. It raises serious questions about Hiett's honesty.

$tate Trea$urer

When it comes to State Treasurer, their really is only one choice on the Republican side, Howard Barnett. Unlike his opponent he can handle money properly which is the role of the Treasurer. If Dan Keating can't handle his own finances than how can we trust Keating to handle our tax dollars? The truth: we can't. The Oklahoman reported this week that Keating failed to pay taxes to both the state and federal government several times, yet he should manage our tax dollars? I urge you to support Howard Barnett for State Treasurer in the GOP Primary, Oklahoma just can't afford to have Dan Keating as treasurer.



Check out these ads radio and television .

Super Sonics to OKC!

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, as well as ESPN.com are reporting that an OKC investor group has bought the supersonics. More to come after a 5pm press conference. Here is The Seattle Post-Intelligencer story.

A Spoonful of Money makes...

Governor

Dems
Henry has raised $3.3 million!

GOP
Sullivan raised $1,165,774 total, with $120,002 coming from himself.

Istook has raised $977,491 in all.

Williamson has raised $236,536 total.

Lt. Governor

Dems

Hobson -Raised $177,909 total spent $25,459.31 total. Cash on hand $152,349.69. Boren gave $2,500 yet appears in both Regan and Askins ads.

Askins raised $318,547 in Q2, $536,396 total. Spent $420,581.79 in all and, has $108,752 left in the bank. Askins loaned her self $350,000. Also Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor her gave $1,500, I see that as a strong endorsement she could use.

GOP

Riley raised $8,534.80 in Q2, $21,734.80 total. Spent $7,806.81 in Q2, $31,910.42 total.

Tulsa DA

GOP

Swab -Raised 117,829 total. $60,000 spent on media: $25,000 on radio and $35,000 on TV.

Statewide Races ads update

It seems that now the ads really start

Governor Big news Williamson has TV ads! Maybe the only reason I saw them was that they were on the morning news at 6 in the morning. The ads are bland and boring, at first I thought I was some bogus fake political ad. It has Williamson with an American flag in the background. ... Sullivan has switched to the postive ads; I think those ads are better because they have a stereotypical Agroamerican that says "That Bob is the only guy that makes a lick of sense."

Lt. Governor I actually saw the Pete Regan ad many times today on TV.

Treasurer Barnett (A class act compared Keating) has been running ads for about a week you can see it on his website just look on the left hand side. ... Keating is also running ads, his ads well are, hmm... lets just say I don't know because I was thinking about... 1. How Dan Keating took a cut of money he raised and not telling donors. 2. His brother calling Tulsans dumb. 3. Not paying state or federal taxes

Tulsa District Attorney Race Hits TV

Finally with less than two weeks remaining both side have spots up on television. Since both of these campaigns are under funded, I don't see the ads ever being placed online because little benefit would be gained.


The Swab starts out and says TULSA'S HOMICIDE RATE IS TWICE THAT OF NEW YORK'S RATE. That sets the mood for the ad. Then it shows a series of newspaper articles and talk about how the staff and funding of the DA's office has increased but the number of cases filed has dropped dramatically. It says that the too many cases are dismissed. (This has been the sediments of many former state prosecutors and current federal prosecutors.) Then it says the zinger Tim Harris is not getting his job done. (Which most in law enforcement agree unless they are under the payroll of Tim Harris.) Then the ad goes an tell about what a swell guy Brett Swab is, and he is.


The Tim Harris ads continue the his PR image. His false bravado quickly shows through on his ads recycled from 1998. (Back when our crime rate was much lower.) He only changes the audio and the words but he still looks eight years younger.(Read the previous post about Harris distorting the figures.) He talks about a the success of a juvenile crime task force he set up, yet does anyone remember the Serial Rapist, hmm... is that success?

CD-5 Update No. 2

It seemed as I things could not get any more conservative than they already are; but I was wrong. One surprising not is the lack of negative ads. My guess would be that Fallin would attack first because she has the money and she is falling in the polls and losing ground to fellow female candidate Bode. However, I could be wrong and they could start from Calvey or Morgan. Fallin though is losing ground in key areas like women and conservative voters according to the latest TVPOLL.com poll. I still think it will be Fallin and Cornett in the runoff.
I like the new Calvey ad it is so hilarious. It has night vision and an endorsement of minutemen leader Chris Simcox. Here is a link to the Calvey ad. Also a new military ad from Bode is out. Cornett also has a ad about what us, being a conservative. Here is a link to Cornett's conservative ad.

Governor / Lt. Governor Ads

Governor Monkey Business continues with Bob Sullivan his ad now attacks Istook for being a lawyer. The ad does bring up a good point that voting against lawsuit reform was no pork project so it contrasts the differences between the two candidates. I really like the Istook counterattack ad it is funny but causes Sullivan to have to suffer at the same time due to across the board rejection of Sullivan, i.e. Tulsa World and Daily Oklahoman.





Jim Evanoff said on News 9-KWTV that he will run ads the everday of last week of the campaign. I thought he was joking, but maybe this is true. It sure would be funny if Evanoff had ads and Williamson did not.

Lt. Governor
Pete Regan now has a ad it is wonderful. It starts out with George Nigh talking about Pete then it tells about his connection to the Borens. Next Pete talks about alternative energy. Then comes the kicker a Barry Switzer voice over. You can view this ad on his website. I think the ad really covers a lot of ground, it introduces Pete, it provides new ideas, and has endorsements all in 30 seconds. Yet, it does not seem overwhelming. This the best ad out there period ... so far.

Scott Pruitt continues the movie trailer theme. His overpowering ad is something he can not pull off, but they are a lot more exciting than Heitt's ads. He is the first to strike blood in the Lt. Governors race as he goes on the negative in his ad. Here is the latest Pruitt AD .

Jari Askins has her mother on her ads I guess she is apealling to the JARIatrics! Here ad can be found at her website, click on video 3.



Todd Hiett has a new ad that responds to the claims made in Pruitt's attack ad and attacks Pruitt's voting record. It says that Pruitt missed nearly half of the votes and failed to vote for the largest tax cut.

Tulsa DA Race Update

Here is some news. Watch for a big story to come out on KOTV-Channel 6 in the coming weeks. Also I have been told that Swab has bought $30,000 in television ads while Harris has bought only $5,000, what a joke Harris really has funding problems. Harris now has a website www.timharrisda.com

It seems as if Servant Timothy (name he goes by when teaching Sunday School) is just a two timing liar. In 1998 while running for District Attorney he attended both Holy Family Catholic Church and First Methodist; at the same time he told church members that he was a devout Catholic/Methodist. I think it is wrong to play people at Church just to get votes, but maybe I am just old fashioned.

Can were trust Tim Harris?

Under Harris’ leadership during the past eight years, the District Attorney’s office has built an outstanding prosecution record.The office’s 88 percent trial conviction record well exceeds the 67 percent national trial conviction rate in communities over 500,000 population.

- Value News July 2006

The average during 8 years in office is 84% - above the national average of 72%.

- www.timharrisda.com/3truth.html 7/12/06

These are two different sets of numbers for the same time period. Both were put out by the Harris campaign; IF THE NUMBERS ARE REAL THEY DON'T CHANGE! This is something to important to ignore, if Tim Harris provide two different numbers on conviction stats, can we trust Harris on other figures?

MG Motors in Oklahoma

Big news for Oklahoma's economy: Free Trade with China works both ways! As many in Oklahoma fault free trade for losing jobs, it seems that jobs that pay better than WAL*MART can be gained. This new plant will be a big boost to the econony of Norman, Oklahoma City, and Ardmore. The will hire 550 people with a payroll of over 30 million dollars. This is a huge score for Oklahoma! Gov. Brad Henry and Treasurer Scott Meacham will both be able to use this achievement in their re-election bids. So now Bob Sullivan when he claims that the leadership of Oklahoma is holding us back, it might now ring hollow. The story is worldwide and is good press for Oklahoma.

Tulsa DA

The race seems to lack much excitement, which is a clear indicator that an incumbent might get re-elected. However that does not mean there is little interest; in fact voters are very interested in the race because the issue of crime is so big. I think the election will take an interesting turn very soon with the momentum continuing to go towards Swab rather than Harris. I have been told that Swab will start television very soon; no mention yet so far about Harris ads. In a low profile race like DA getting your name out is big because even the DA is not a household name. Judging by the signs up in actual yards I would say support is pretty even. However, not many signs can be found as of yet. One thing that will give the Swab campaign an advantage is the are working harder when it comes to door to door campaign.

This a chart provided by the FBI and DOJ on crime stats:

However I found one of the most desperate campaign moves ever arrives in my mail box; the media seems to be giving Harris to much bad press( i.e. 1st Assistant Drummond says, "They [the FOP] are just doing this to make us angry!" and, "Bring it on!") so he goes out and buys a story in the Value News ...LAME! It should be a clear sign that your campaign sucks when you buy a story in a rag. Also The Tulsa World will endorse Swab, join law enforcement in that move, this time you can spin it and say it's a liberal conspiracy. On Swab's website it list 24 former DA's that now support Swab, and they worked for Harris before, so I think that is a pretty strong message. Watch for this race to heat up even more!

Here is a chart that shows the facts on the numbers:

The conviction rate boasted by Harris is constantly changing: 86% in response to the FOP, in the value news 88% conviction rate and on channel 6 90%. See the KOTV story .

A debate is set for July 21 @ Radisson Hotel- 41st & 169 11:30am.

CD-5 Update

What is a conservative? That seems to be the biggest question when it comes to the race. Clearly the question will not be answered. Still Mary Fallin thinks her ads can answer that. One thing is for sure the Republicans will have a runoff. Here is how I see the election right now:

Republicans

• 34% Fallin
  
• 28% Cornett
  
• 19% Bode
  
• 9% Calvey
  
• 7% Morgan
  
• 3% Roy
  

Democrats:

• 58%Hunter
  
• 42%Smith
  

The race on television is heating up watch out soon for a money report. Fallin has new ads that only rehash the old. Thanks to okvoter.com we have this robot call from Cornett Also, showing real difficulties in raising money, Cornett has bought infomercials on KSBI. You can watch the new infomercials on his website . Warning: this video contains content not suitable for children!