KFOR Poll Henry, Askins lead, Lt. Gov race close

Governor
29% Istook (R)
65% Henry (D)
3% Other
3% Undecided

Lt. Governor
44% Hiett (R)
48% Askins (D)
3% Million
5% Undecided

Governors Debate aka pep rally

The crowd was screaming and yelling, but this was no athletic event, rather a dignified political debate. The governors debate was full of people screaming rude and crude things. "You are dumb, Brad you don't know anything!" "Get him Ernest!" "That ***hole needs to shut up!" "BOOOOOOO!" I was ashamed that the people held them self in this manner. The rude crowd took away time from discussing issues, and helped Oklahoma look like a bunch of hicks on C-SPAN. I went to the debate expecting a lively debate on the issues, rather I was a yelling match between the supporters. I even found myself breaking up a heated argument that was headed for a fist fight.
Come on Oklahoma we can do better than that!

Istook "I'm desperate"

Thinking that he is running in the year 2004, Istook has shown his true colors: unchristian like campaigning in this ad:

Istook "I'm desperate"


Also
KOTV does a Truth Test on Lt. Governor ads

Maybe the aliens Ernest is talking about are at his HQ!

"We find your polling only slightly more credible than a Ouija board."

-Derek Kern of the Istook campaign

Tulsa World / KOTV Oklahoma Poll
Istook 24.7 Henry 68.4

Maybe the Istook people should realize they don't have a campaign, and just concide now; all they can do now is bring down the republican ticket. Well Crozier can still do that; I wonder what Crozier will get my call now is 29.86%. Funny how when Tom Daxon is head of the party the governor campaign is very Daxon like! (Daxon did not win a single county - not even Washington the #1 republican stronghold.)

Tulsa World Oklahoma Poll: First Look

Tulsa World / KOTV Oklahoma Poll

Governor
Brad Henry 68%
Istook 25%

Governor Approval Ratings
Approve 80%
Disapprove 14%
Don't Know 6%

Wow! These are the lowest I have seen Istook ever. A 43 point spread. 80% approval rating. The drive for 45 seems to be out of reach for Istook.

Henry leads in Rasmussen poll

In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll Brad Henry leads Istook 59% to 34%. 68% of Oklahomans approve of the way Henry is handling his job as Governor. This is a 4 point increase for Henry over Istook since the August Rasmussen poll.

Henry's latest ad "Oklahoma Way"

Brad Henry has come out with his 4th ad in the general election while Istook has yet to hit the air. It looks like Henry will cruise to reelection unless he goes crazy. TVPoll.com showed him up 55-33. The ad features people as old as the state of Oklahoma.

Henry, Askins lead in latest polls.

The most recent Survey USA poll taken 09/21 - 09/25 show both Henry and Askins in the lead.

33% Istook (R)
64% Henry (D)
3% Undecided
Margin of Error: ± 4.3%

In the governors race it looks like Istook is finished. Something telling is that Brad Henry has had three television ads up in the general election, while Istook has yet to air one. Henry is defining this race, something the challenger must do if they have a chance at winning. Henry is up 70%-25% among female voters, Istook has to target women voters if he wants to have a slight chance at winning.

43% Hiett (R)
50% Askins (D)
3% Million (I)
3% Undecided
Margin of Error: ± 4.5%

This poll shows Askins lead up from 6 points to 7 points, not much movement. However the undecideds dropped from 8% to 3% so people are making up their minds. Currently Jari Askins is the only candidate running ads on television and there have been reports that Hiett's campaign is broke. Askins must continue to get a disporpotionate amount of female voters to win, in the most recent poll she held 53%-40% advantage over Hiett among women voters.

Brad Henry's Anti-Meth Ad

The Henry campaign has turned out yet another ad. So here is the score card for general election ads Brad Henry 3 Ernest Istook 0. With Henry defining this race Istooks slim chance is fading fast. The latest ad highlights the Anti-Meth law that was a national model in the fight against meth. What was important is that not only was it a good thing, the way the bill was written got things done right. Now children are not as likely to be exposed to deadly fumes from meth kitchens. This was also an example of bipartisan leadership when he mentions George Bush who has a 45% approval rating in Oklahoma. Clearly the Henry camp has decided that he has his base voters who view Bush worse than those targeted in this ad. This is the first use of Bush in a positive light all year in an ad that I have seen.

One thing to consider is Henry has not gone negative yet. This will help him because he has an image of being a nice guy. Also a positive campaign could help those down ticket like Jari Askins. It can't be helping Hiett that only Democratic media is up on the air defining the race.

Henry responds to Istook ad.

In a preview of how fast Henry's team will respond this election, the Henry camp came out with this ad (scroll down to bottom of page) today that refutes the charges made by Istook's radio ad. Istook is in a heap of trouble because after all wasn't illegal immigration Istook's big issue? Istook just can't keep up with the big dogs so he better stay on the porch!

Governor / Lt. Governor Polls

Here are the most recent poll numbers:
Governor
Henry 60%
Istook 34%
Undecided 5%

Lt. Governor
Askins 48%
Hiett 42%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

The internals were also interesting. Istook did well with conseratives, winning 62-31, but horrible with moderates losing 82-15. One odd number among Hispanics Istook is the clear choice 52-32, but it is such a small sample size it really doesn't say much. Clearly so far it shows that Istook did not know what he was talking about when he said that Henry's support was wide but not deep, Henry has kept his large lead in several key groups like rural Oklahomans. Henry continues to have across the board support in most of the internal numbers which is a good sign for a sitting governor to still have wide spread appeal even after making decisions that people don't like.

In the Lt. Governor's race the theme stays the same: a very tight race. With Askins lead just outside the margin of error she has to do well in key areas. She has a big advantage with women voters 56-36, young voters 47-30 and lower income ( less than 40k) 57-33 voters. She needs to do extremely well to win this race with those groups. However, like any close election the winner will need to do well with Independents, they are split pretty evenly. Yet there may be a flaw with this poll since it does not give the Independents candidate as a choice by saying "or Independent E.Z. Million" it may drive votes for him because he is just 'other' as 12% of Independents responded with other.

The poll was taken 8/25/06 - 8/27/06 by Survey USA. The margin of error was ± 4.3% in the Governor's race poll and ± 4.4% in the Lt. Governor's race.

Gubernatorial Finance$

Here is the score sheet from Quarter 1

Candidate/Cash on hand/Out of State Money^/ % Out of state*
Henry- $2,141,653.55 / $ 2,000 / 0.6%
Istook- $ 413,394.40 / $29,750 / 9.1%
Sullivan- $ 613,239.18 / $10,110 / 6.5%
Williamson $ 61,724.84 / $ 100 / 0.3%

My take: First Henry has 3.5 times what his nearest opponent has, and he doesn't have a strong primary opponent either. Another interesting note, Hiett has 1 million on hand that is just short of all GOP gubernatorial candidates combined, a stronger indication that Hiett could have beaten all of these rejects. In fact Hiett would milk their donors dry! Dairy farmers can do that you know. Second a large concentration of donors came from a place I had never heard of, Oklahoma JCity, OK. Now could some one please show me this place on a map please. Third, it appears that Williamson just can't afford the long distance phone bill to raise money out of state, but he did manage to raise money from Cowboy PAC, Yee Haw! Istook has been doing quite fine with voters on K Street in DC (for all those who don't know that is the place where lobbyist reside), in fact he got a contribution from Continental Airlines PAC, whose purpose is to "Support Goals", but Henry received money from OK Asphalt Pavers Association whose purpose is "To Encourge Quality Roadbuilding", I would have never thought that, I always thought they were about Healthcare Reform.

^ Money received from individuals outside of Oklahoma during Q1 2006
* Money received from individuals outside of Oklahoma during Q1 2006 divided by total money received from individuals during Q1 2006

Candidate Websites

Governor
-Brad Henry- Here is the complete unabridged version of the site: Henry for Governor. Yes that is all the official website says of a campaign with 2.1 million in the bank as of last filing period. That webmaster sure struck it rich!

-Ernest Istook- Flip-flop, he can't choose a color first all read then mostly blue. Best part of his web site is the picture of supporters. Do they really need all those signs or is it a major production right out of the 1930's.

-Bob Sullivan- He seems to be obsessed with himself. The size of BOB on his sign is odd. I guess he thinks it might help with his image as a average Joe. His image is huge it takes up 1/4 of the home page.

-James Williamson- His website reminds me of Peroutka's in 2004, the Constitution Party nominee for President. Also is it just me or does the icon on the address bar look like a nuclear fallout symbol? Signs of things to come?