First 2008 Primary Poll

No surprises as far as the front runners. McCain and Clinton just have a better name identification.
I would be surprised if Clinton is able to finish 2nd in Oklahoma. In the first poll so far Clinton garnered 28% of democrats; Edwards 23%, Obama 14%. The problem with the poll was that it included Al Gore and John Kerry, who combined received 12% of democratic support; even though they won't run. Also the poll was taken right after Obama's announcement and in the middle of Hillary's announcement. Under those circumstances Obama and Clinton should have had higher numbers; meaning that this poll bodes well for Edwards who was out of the spotlight.
On the republican side, it is just as useless. Leave it to the Tulsa World to insert Rice, who is considered a serious presidential candidate by almost no one. The GOP numbers are McCain 25%, Giuliani 17, Rice 16%, Gingrich 13%.

KFOR Poll Henry, Askins lead, Lt. Gov race close

Governor
29% Istook (R)
65% Henry (D)
3% Other
3% Undecided

Lt. Governor
44% Hiett (R)
48% Askins (D)
3% Million
5% Undecided

Oklahoma Poll: Askins, Holland, McMahan lead

Lt. Governor
Askins 49%
Hiett 38%
Million 2%
Undecided 10%

Insurance Commissioner
Holland 43%
Case 33%
Undecided 24%

Auditor
McMahan 42%
Jones 34%
Undecided 25%

Maybe the aliens Ernest is talking about are at his HQ!

"We find your polling only slightly more credible than a Ouija board."

-Derek Kern of the Istook campaign

Tulsa World / KOTV Oklahoma Poll
Istook 24.7 Henry 68.4

Maybe the Istook people should realize they don't have a campaign, and just concide now; all they can do now is bring down the republican ticket. Well Crozier can still do that; I wonder what Crozier will get my call now is 29.86%. Funny how when Tom Daxon is head of the party the governor campaign is very Daxon like! (Daxon did not win a single county - not even Washington the #1 republican stronghold.)

Tulsa World Oklahoma Poll: First Look

Tulsa World / KOTV Oklahoma Poll

Governor
Brad Henry 68%
Istook 25%

Governor Approval Ratings
Approve 80%
Disapprove 14%
Don't Know 6%

Wow! These are the lowest I have seen Istook ever. A 43 point spread. 80% approval rating. The drive for 45 seems to be out of reach for Istook.

Democrats ahead in key Senate Races Poll

The Oklahoma Poll Sponsored by the Tulsa World showed that Democrats were leading 5 vital State Senate districts: 2, 12, 16, 18, and 26. One district 40 the democrat is down but the district is heavily republican. With lots of outside money being poured in from both sides anything can happen.

SD-2
Burrage-D 48.7 Shaffer-R 39.1 Undecided 12.2

SD-12
Bingman-R 38.7 Young-D 46.7 Undecided 14.6

SD-16
Sparks-D 51.1 Davis-R 34.2 Undecided 14

SD-18
Wofford-R 37.6 Easley-D 49.5 Undecided 12.9

SD-26
Ivester-D 56.5 Russ-R 31.5 Undecided 12

SD-40
Branan-R 47.3 Potts-D 37 Undecided 15.7

Mary Fallin's TV ad

Mary Fallin's latest ad mostly describes NCLB, so what exactly is she proposing? I feel that we need more local control of schools and curriculum not less, but Mary seems to want big government bureaucracy to destroy schools.



The most recent Survey USA Poll shows Fallin in a landslide.

Fallin (R) 62%
Hunter (D) 33%
Woodson 3%
Undecided 2%

TVPoll 10/9

In the latest poll sponsored by News 9 in Oklahoma City here are the numbers...

Governor
Henry (D) 59.5%
Istook (R) 33.2%
Undecided 7.3%

Lt. Governor
Askins (D) 48%
Hiett (R) 41.3%
Million (I) 1.7%
Undecided 8.9%

Attorney General
Edmondson (D) 54.9%
Dunn (R) 30.2%
Undecided 14.9%

Treasurer
Barnett (R) 34.1%
Meacham (D) 46.8%
Undecided 19.1%

Insurance Commissioner
Case (R) 35.6%
Holland (D) 36.2%
Undecided 28.5%

State Auditor
McMahan (D) 39.5%
Jones (R) 35.4%
Undecided 25.1%

Labor Commissioner
Fields (D) 36.1%
Reneau (R) 44%
Undecided 19.9%

Corporation Commissioner
Graves (D) 39.1%
Anthony (R) 45.7%
Undecided 15.2%

Henry leads in Rasmussen poll

In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll Brad Henry leads Istook 59% to 34%. 68% of Oklahomans approve of the way Henry is handling his job as Governor. This is a 4 point increase for Henry over Istook since the August Rasmussen poll.

Henry, Askins lead in latest polls.

The most recent Survey USA poll taken 09/21 - 09/25 show both Henry and Askins in the lead.

33% Istook (R)
64% Henry (D)
3% Undecided
Margin of Error: ± 4.3%

In the governors race it looks like Istook is finished. Something telling is that Brad Henry has had three television ads up in the general election, while Istook has yet to air one. Henry is defining this race, something the challenger must do if they have a chance at winning. Henry is up 70%-25% among female voters, Istook has to target women voters if he wants to have a slight chance at winning.

43% Hiett (R)
50% Askins (D)
3% Million (I)
3% Undecided
Margin of Error: ± 4.5%

This poll shows Askins lead up from 6 points to 7 points, not much movement. However the undecideds dropped from 8% to 3% so people are making up their minds. Currently Jari Askins is the only candidate running ads on television and there have been reports that Hiett's campaign is broke. Askins must continue to get a disporpotionate amount of female voters to win, in the most recent poll she held 53%-40% advantage over Hiett among women voters.

Governor / Lt. Governor Polls

Here are the most recent poll numbers:
Governor
Henry 60%
Istook 34%
Undecided 5%

Lt. Governor
Askins 48%
Hiett 42%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

The internals were also interesting. Istook did well with conseratives, winning 62-31, but horrible with moderates losing 82-15. One odd number among Hispanics Istook is the clear choice 52-32, but it is such a small sample size it really doesn't say much. Clearly so far it shows that Istook did not know what he was talking about when he said that Henry's support was wide but not deep, Henry has kept his large lead in several key groups like rural Oklahomans. Henry continues to have across the board support in most of the internal numbers which is a good sign for a sitting governor to still have wide spread appeal even after making decisions that people don't like.

In the Lt. Governor's race the theme stays the same: a very tight race. With Askins lead just outside the margin of error she has to do well in key areas. She has a big advantage with women voters 56-36, young voters 47-30 and lower income ( less than 40k) 57-33 voters. She needs to do extremely well to win this race with those groups. However, like any close election the winner will need to do well with Independents, they are split pretty evenly. Yet there may be a flaw with this poll since it does not give the Independents candidate as a choice by saying "or Independent E.Z. Million" it may drive votes for him because he is just 'other' as 12% of Independents responded with other.

The poll was taken 8/25/06 - 8/27/06 by Survey USA. The margin of error was ± 4.3% in the Governor's race poll and ± 4.4% in the Lt. Governor's race.