Corporation Commission

The GOP candidates are offering an early preview of their July 29th showdown. The challenge by Rob Johnson of Dana Murphy's candidacy is so technical in nature, that the 11th Commandment seems to be completely forgotten, Reagan is surely rolling in his grave. It seems as if Murphy, the former State GOP Vice-Chair will survive Johnson's challenge of her candidacy. However unclear is whether she will survive Johnson's better fund primary run. One thing does remain clear this primary race will be very costly and surely won't be a pretty one to watch.

Oh and by the way, while the GOP candidates will be blowing hundreds of thousands running against each other, the Democratic incumbent will be raising hundreds of thousands of dollars. Jim Roth already reported $175,000 as of the April 1st. I wouldn't be surprised if Roth takes $300,000 in the 3rd quarter alone. The list of Roth's honorary chairman explains it all: Aubrey McClendon, George Kaiser, Harold Hamm and Clayton Bennentt.

State Senate Race Becomes Clearer

With the 24-24 split of the Senate a few key races will be where control is decided. There will be four key races were all sides could spend $1 million dollars on each race. The contested seats are District 15 in Norman, District 21 in Stillwater (where there are 2 Dems running), District 31 in Lawton and, District 37 in Tulsa (2 GOP candidates).
On the Republican side there will be heated primaries for District 35 in Tulsa and District 45 in Oklahoma City. My early picks to win each seat are former Tulsa City Councilor Cason Carter, and in 45 LTC Steve Russell who played a key role in the capture of Saddam Hussein. It's hard to beat a record of service like his.
On an interesting note Bowdy Peach is running as a Democrat in district 27 which has long been held by the GOP. Peach is the son of Terry Peach who is the Secretary of Agriculture. Peach represents a serious candidate on the Democratic side for the first time in a while in this area. Peach, a rancher and professional bull rider, during filing said, "My values are right on track with most of the people in western Oklahoma and the Panhandle."

State Senate Preview

Things are finally heating up now that the legislative session has now ended the State Senate races are heating up. I will now preview a couple of hot races.
District 37
This race will most likely be the most expensive and competitive of all. Sen. Nancy Riley will run for re-election for the first time since she switched her registration to the Democratic Party. She has maintained her voting record the last two years so on issues none of her stances have changed. Her top priority is education, she is pro-life, and remains committed to programs for child wellbeing. Her opponent is a mortgage lender Dan Newberry. So far the biggest difference between the two would be in their commitment to education, Riley was a school teacher before coming to the Senate and is one of common education's strongest advocates. Newberry would not make education a priority like Riley has. Another boost to Riley's campaign is the bond package that includes 25 million for improvements to the Arkansas River which runs through all of district 37.

Other districts where competitive races will occur are
District 21, Stillwater area, where former OSU President Halligan is the current favorite to take the seat from outgoing Democratic leader Mike Morgan.
District 15, Norman area, where Senator Nichols will face a challenge from Diane Drum.
District 31, Lawton area, where Senator Barrington will face a challenge from Keith Erwin.

District 33, Tulsa, which was a very competitive district in 2004 as Senator Adelson won by less than a 1,000 votes seems to be moving toward a strong democratic hold as Adelson has raised over $300,000 and the republicans have yet to announce a candidate a few weeks from filing.

Can't wait for Gravel to debate again!

Sen. Mike Gravel is just so entertaining, he really livens up the debate. His passion makes Howard Dean look like Al Gore.

Rudy in Oklahoma

I think this picture from the Oklahoman pretty much shows that Rudy has already embraced the Oklahoma way of life.

Bloomberg News

In today's Washington Post Michael Shear pointed toward the possibility of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg running as an independent candidate for president in 2008. This move would radically change the landscape of 2008 presidential field. Since Bloomberg is a billionaire, he could enter the race far later than other contenders, painting himself as the true alternative. While the Washington Post speculates that he could spend up too 500 million on presidential campaign, he could spend far less and still be rather competitive. With the typical primary season shift to the base of both major parties, Bloomberg could easily capture the middle 60% of Americans who don't view them self as either liberal or conservative. Just like Perot was in 1992, Bloomberg could be a viable alternative to the major party candidates, also he is more appealing because he does not have some of the odd mannerisms that Ross 'The Boss' Perot did. Bloomberg also has real world experience in business and government; governing a city more than twice the size of Oklahoma. While Bloomberg probably won't run it would be interesting to have a viable third option.

Moving Oklahoma's Primary Date?

Right now it seems like there is to much of a rush to front load the presidential primary contest. Efforts are being made in a bill authored by Rep. Trebor Worthen (R-OKC) to move the date of the primary from Tuesday Feb. 5th to Saturday Feb. 2nd. The idea seems like a good one because it will garner the state more attention from Presidential candidates. Oklahoma and South Carolina would be the same day on the Republican side, and the sooner state would be the only contest on the democratic side.

However on the democratic side this creates quite a problem because the Democratic National Committee passed a rule that will take away any delegates from a candidate who campaigns in a state (other than IA,NH,NV, and SC) that holds it's primary before Feb. 5th. So for democratic attention, it could serve as a deterrent rather than a impetus to campaign in Oklahoma. Ironically Chairman Howard Dean would be forcing the candidates not to take part in his '50 State Strategy' Right now it appears as if there would be no drawbacks on the Republican side.

It is unclear if lawmakers would opt for a Republican primary on the 2nd, and Democratic primary on the 5th. However that solution would double the costs.

First 2008 Primary Poll

No surprises as far as the front runners. McCain and Clinton just have a better name identification.
I would be surprised if Clinton is able to finish 2nd in Oklahoma. In the first poll so far Clinton garnered 28% of democrats; Edwards 23%, Obama 14%. The problem with the poll was that it included Al Gore and John Kerry, who combined received 12% of democratic support; even though they won't run. Also the poll was taken right after Obama's announcement and in the middle of Hillary's announcement. Under those circumstances Obama and Clinton should have had higher numbers; meaning that this poll bodes well for Edwards who was out of the spotlight.
On the republican side, it is just as useless. Leave it to the Tulsa World to insert Rice, who is considered a serious presidential candidate by almost no one. The GOP numbers are McCain 25%, Giuliani 17, Rice 16%, Gingrich 13%.

The Primary Schedule

January 14, 2008 - Iowa
January 19, 2008 - Nevada
January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire
January 29, 2008 - South Carolina
February 5, 2008 - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma,Utah
February 12, 2008 - District of Columbia, Tennessee, Virginia
February 19, 2008 - Wisconsin
February 26, 2008 - Hawaii, Idaho

Clearly the schedule will lean toward a more conservative nominee out of both parties. Of the early voting states 14 are red states and 6 are blue states. These are not states where Clinton or Obama are a natural fit. The schedule seem to favor Edwards in the democratic primary. The reason I feel Senator Brownback has a chance to take off is the conservative slant of these early states; although this is McCain's race to lose at this point.

Good News for Oklahoma, while we won't be the only state, there are nine others on the same week, we are nearby many of the other states so stops won't be out of the question. The group of states is not far off that of the group in 2004 when Kerry and Edwards visited, and Clark set up his base of operations in Oklahoma.

Presidental Primaries taking shape.

The over hyped announcement by Barack Obama brought the attention of many to the 2008 primaries. Now here is a list of who is in and who is a contender.

Official Candidates BOLD=Contender
GOP
US Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kansas)
Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-Virginia)
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-New York)
Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-California)
US Senator John McCain (R-Arizona)
Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas)
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-Massachusetts)
Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-Colorado)
Former Governor Tommy Thompson (R-Wisconsin)

Democrats

US Senator Joe Biden (D-Delaware)
US Senator Chris Dodd (D-Connecitcut)
Former US Senator John Edwards (D-North Carolina)
Former Alaska US Senator Mike Gravel (D-Virginia)
Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio)
US Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois)
Governor Bill Richardson (D-New Mexico)
Governor Tom Vilsack (D-Iowa)

Unofficial Candidates

GOP
Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia)
Former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-Arkansas)

Democrats
US Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-New York)

Keating for President!

I think Frank Keating should run for President. Based on the results of his relatives: his brother Dan, lost to Howard Barnett in Treasurer's race primary and, his son Chip, lost to David Dank in a house seat runoff. Frank will take that track record of success and add entertainment with his many gaffes. If you think about Presidential candidates the first thing is that they can not have a clean record; that eliminates John McCain. Keating publicly stated that the gifts from Dreyfus were legal, that's a Washington answer. Frank spent a lot of time in Washington in the bureaucracy in Treasury, Housing and Urban Development, and Justice Departments. Frank Keating is ready for prime time!

"Tulsans are stupid!"

Democrats in 2008

Oklahoma unlike in 2004, will not play a large role in selecting our president. I would like to point out that Oklahoma showed it's smarts. We were the only state to put John 'i am more boring than watching 48 straight of c-span' Kerry in third place where he belonged. We also voted against Bush by the largest margin 10% of Oklahoma Republicans voted for Bill Wyatt.

On the democratic side things are heating up fast. Already, two second-tier candidates have dropped out, Mark Warner and Evan Bayh. This leaves us with the main event or so called top-tier candidates they are Obama, Clinton, and Edwards.

Obama? or is it Osama? his name is -2 percentage point from the start, to many good negative ads can be made by his name alone. Then come the cold hard truth he is very LIBERAL. Obama will hurt democrats chances in holding Senate. A state senator told me that they want to run with somebody who Oklahomans at least are not polarized against, that list also includes Clinton. Obama is unexperienced; on gaffe and the whole show is over, his campaign is a house of cards since it is all about his image.

Clinton, okay first she is not Bill. She has negatives at 40% that is a horrible baseline to start from. Again please help grow the democratic party if your a democrat, don't just pick a polarizing figure.

Edwards, okay so he is charismatic, has held a job outside politics, and is pretty good looking. His big issue is fighting poverty, he grew up in a shack in South Carolina. He has the story, and is a good campaigner, plus he wont alienate Oklahomans at the ballot box. Not to mention of the first four states Iowa(he currently leads in polling), Nevada(big labor backing there), New Hampshire(3rd place finish likely), and South Carolina(home state what more is there).