Henry leads in Rasmussen poll

In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll Brad Henry leads Istook 59% to 34%. 68% of Oklahomans approve of the way Henry is handling his job as Governor. This is a 4 point increase for Henry over Istook since the August Rasmussen poll.

Henry's latest ad "Oklahoma Way"

Brad Henry has come out with his 4th ad in the general election while Istook has yet to hit the air. It looks like Henry will cruise to reelection unless he goes crazy. TVPoll.com showed him up 55-33. The ad features people as old as the state of Oklahoma.

Henry, Askins lead in latest polls.

The most recent Survey USA poll taken 09/21 - 09/25 show both Henry and Askins in the lead.

33% Istook (R)
64% Henry (D)
3% Undecided
Margin of Error: ± 4.3%

In the governors race it looks like Istook is finished. Something telling is that Brad Henry has had three television ads up in the general election, while Istook has yet to air one. Henry is defining this race, something the challenger must do if they have a chance at winning. Henry is up 70%-25% among female voters, Istook has to target women voters if he wants to have a slight chance at winning.

43% Hiett (R)
50% Askins (D)
3% Million (I)
3% Undecided
Margin of Error: ± 4.5%

This poll shows Askins lead up from 6 points to 7 points, not much movement. However the undecideds dropped from 8% to 3% so people are making up their minds. Currently Jari Askins is the only candidate running ads on television and there have been reports that Hiett's campaign is broke. Askins must continue to get a disporpotionate amount of female voters to win, in the most recent poll she held 53%-40% advantage over Hiett among women voters.

Brad Henry's Anti-Meth Ad

The Henry campaign has turned out yet another ad. So here is the score card for general election ads Brad Henry 3 Ernest Istook 0. With Henry defining this race Istooks slim chance is fading fast. The latest ad highlights the Anti-Meth law that was a national model in the fight against meth. What was important is that not only was it a good thing, the way the bill was written got things done right. Now children are not as likely to be exposed to deadly fumes from meth kitchens. This was also an example of bipartisan leadership when he mentions George Bush who has a 45% approval rating in Oklahoma. Clearly the Henry camp has decided that he has his base voters who view Bush worse than those targeted in this ad. This is the first use of Bush in a positive light all year in an ad that I have seen.

One thing to consider is Henry has not gone negative yet. This will help him because he has an image of being a nice guy. Also a positive campaign could help those down ticket like Jari Askins. It can't be helping Hiett that only Democratic media is up on the air defining the race.

Henry responds to Istook ad.

In a preview of how fast Henry's team will respond this election, the Henry camp came out with this ad (scroll down to bottom of page) today that refutes the charges made by Istook's radio ad. Istook is in a heap of trouble because after all wasn't illegal immigration Istook's big issue? Istook just can't keep up with the big dogs so he better stay on the porch!

Jari on TV, Hiett broke.

Well the races are starting to heat up finally. Since the Governors race won't provide much excitement, with Istook unable to fund a television ad, the Lt. Governor's race might be at center stage.

Jari Askins has a new ad out, and she is the first up in the Lt. Governor's race. The ad's main goal is to tie her to Governor Brad Henry, not a bad strategy after all with Henry's high favorable and re-elect numbers. She wants conservative and moderate Democrats to feel comfortable with her so they just stamp the rooster. This is key to her success because people don't care that much about the Lt. Governor race, if she can just say I'm with Brad it puts Hiett in a bad spot to say I'm with Ernest. Don Hoover is Askins media guy the same one who did Gary Richardson's Steve Largent "Where were you on 9/11?" ad.



Hiett is so broke he asked Askins for money. Hiett sent an e-mail out to all House members on their office e-mail. That brings up real ethical questions. Is it right to use state resources to raise money? No! This not the first time ethical questions have come up with Hiett. Hiett distributed campaign signs in state parking lots, and was questioned about the pay to play scandal. This is a pattern of strong correlation: Todd Hiett doesn't like to play by the rules!

Ernest Istook buys first ad...

... radio ad that is. I think this ad shows how screwed Istook is. One issue candidates don't win. Gary Richardson talked only about turnpikes, and so far Istook can't say anything but illegal immigration.

Istook is starting to look like on of those Head On commercials

Istook On apply directly to illegal immigration, Istook On apply directly to illegal immigration, Istook On apply directly to illegal immigration. Istook On is available where every you find Washington insiders.

Just like the Head On ads I wonder if Istook On will work?

You can hear the ad here. However on the issue of illegal immigration is really moot in state government. Do you really think people will go to a state based on in state tuition? Most immigrants only care about if there are jobs available. These jobs must be provided by employers. If we prevented employers from hiring illegal immigrants we solve the problem! You are probably wondering if something was that simple why have we not done it? Well the answer is the National Republican Party! The power players of the Republican party (Corporate America) stand to gain from illegal immigration so they don't want it to stop because they make money. NO JOBS=NO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS!

Governor Henry's ads

Henry has had these ads out a few weeks but they are not played that heavily. Still it is clear that Henry will use his large war chest to define this race. Ernest Istook has yet to hit the airwaves in the general election. I don't expect him to have an ad on the air till after October 1st. Brad Henry will likely put up another one or two ads by the time Istook goes up. The production quality of these ads are good as they play up family.

"Balanced Budget"


"This is our dad"

North of the border: Kansas

"Forward"

"Paper Clips"

"Respect"

"Drivers Seat"


I find her ads interesting because even though Oklahoma and Kansas are neighbors there are huge differences. In Oklahoma the ads are slicker while in Kansas the electorate would not tolerate it. For instance the Howard Barnett ad that played well her would have bombed in Kansas. The race is getting closer up their as analysts have changed the Governor's race from likely democratic to leans democratic. Republican Jim Barnett is challenging Sebelius. In Kansas they run as a ticket with Governor and Lt. Governor. I wish it was like that in Oklahoma.

Man won't shave beard until Osama is caught

Gary Weddle vows to keep the beard, "even if I'm buried in it." After the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Gary Weddle began following the news so closely he forgot to shave. After a week he decided not to shave until Osama bin Laden had been caught or killed.
I think this takes real dedication. Wonder if he ever gets confused with bin Laden with a beard like his?

Henry up by 21- Rasmussen Reports.

In the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll Henry leads Istook 54% to 33%. The marks a ten point gain for Henry over a previous poll. Henry's latest TV ads say 'Oklahoma is on the move!' yet, Henry himself seems to be 'on the move' as well. 18% of voters have an unfavorable view of Istook while only 7% have an unfavorable view of Henry. 51% think Henry is moderate. This is a good sign that people like Henry he is gaining votes as the incumbent, not losing them. These numbers are great for Henry beacuse the solid Republican base in Oklahoma is anywhere from 30%-35%, meaning Istook is just getting the votes because he is not the Democrat and has a R next to his name. My thought, Bob Sullivan, a political outsider, in a year with people upset at congress would do better than a congressman with a long voting record and lack of personality. Maybe that says something about the Republican voters, they like Henry so much they put the worst candidate foward.

RIED Scores = Bogus

Some of the scores just prove that the RIED scores can not be taking seriously:
Adelson 60 Has sponsored minimum wage and healthcare funding bills. One of the most liberal members of the Senate.
Brogdon 60 Biggest proponent behind TABOR. One of the most conservative members of the Senate.
Hastings 7 cumulative 62. One of the most pro business legislator I can think of!
Nations 52 cumulative 63. Not exactly anti-business, but not at the level of Hastings in support of Business.

Now I know these ratings are supposed to influence voters opinion, but do voters read the ratings? I have yet to meet a voter who even mentions the RIED ratings when talking about a candidate. Also the ratings are supposed to influence how a legislator votes, yet it fails miserably at that. The legislators don't know which votes affected their scores so how can they improve their record? One sign of their uselessness, one Senator said, "I like to get a failing score!"